Why does holiday shopping start earlier every year?
For many Americans, holiday shopping begins with October deals and continues through December. The National Retail Federation’s October 2026 survey found 43% of U.S. holiday shoppers planned to begin browsing or buying before November.
For retailers and open source ecommerce platforms such as Shopware, the longer season brings more selling opportunities and expenses. Shoppers want to stretch their expenses and find discounts, while retailers compete to win their business.
How the holiday shopping calendar got longer
Online shopping helped extend holiday sales beyond Black Friday. Shop.org introduced Cyber Monday in 2005; Amazon’s 2026 Prime Big Deal Days ran on October 6–7.
The extended season spans October promotions through December purchases, including early Black Friday offers, pre-Thanksgiving sales and Cyber Week. Through email, social media and digital advertising, retailers can influence shoppers’ early purchase decisions before competing campaigns crowd shoppers’ inboxes and screens.
The consumer side: Why shoppers are starting earlier
Among early starters in NRF’s 2026 survey, half wanted to spread their holiday shopping budgets across the season; 37% cited attractive prices and promotions. Prosper Insights & Analytics surveyed 8,094 adults October 1–7.
NRF’s 2024 research also identified avoiding crowds and stress as motivations. Basis’s 2025 research highlighted concerns about shipping delays and stockouts. Yet NRF’s 2026 survey found 64% of consumers likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend for most shopping. An early search for gifts can still lead to a late purchase.
The retailer's perspective: Why brands keep moving promotions forward
An early sale can reach customers before they spend their gift budgets elsewhere, bringing revenue forward and potentially spreading packing and shipping across more weeks. Offers can also target excess seasonal inventory.
Early campaigns can introduce shoppers to a store, while purchase data can guide relevant follow-up offers and encourage repeat visits. Even cheaper advertising may not pay off if few visitors buy, so retailers should assess additional sales and gross profit across the season, including the cost of acquiring each new customer.
The discount dilemma: Are early deals actually better?
Shopping earlier does not guarantee a lower price. The Federal Trade Commission recommends comparing identical products, checking total costs and reviewing price-matching and refund policies.
Price alerts help reveal whether an October markdown beats an earlier price or simply repeats it. Surveys describe shopping plans, but finding the best deal requires comparing prices for the same product over time. Retailers should explain exclusions and delivery charges so shoppers can judge the total cost.
The economics of an extended holiday shopping season
Retailers need to track what shoppers spend per order and how many visitors become buyers. Discounts might attract more orders but leave less revenue after merchandise costs; shipping many small orders could further reduce profits. Selling and replacing inventory faster can help, but retailers still need to account for advertising, discounts and fulfillment expenses.
Sales can also rise because prices are higher. Nominal growth measures dollars spent; inflation-adjusted growth gives a clearer picture of how much more shoppers are buying.
What the 2026 holiday sales forecasts reveal
U.S. forecasts differ in estimates and scope:
NRF projects 4.2% growth to $1.013 trillion for November–December, excluding auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
EY-Parthenon anticipates 5.2% growth in holiday sales, or approximately 2.9% after inflation, using the same months and exclusions but its own estimates.
Mastercard expects retail sales to grow 5.5% during November 1–December 24, excluding autos and gas, with online growth outpacing stores.
Comparisons require care because Mastercard uses different dates and exclusions, while forecasts depend on employment, wages, disposable income and inflation. EY-Parthenon also highlights depressed sentiment despite spending strength, showing that people may keep buying even while feeling pessimistic.
Mastercard suggests higher-income households have likely led spending. ICSC’s September 2026 survey describes debt affecting holiday spending, including trade-offs with saving and debt repayment. Essential bills and interest costs can squeeze discretionary gifts even when aggregate sales grow. NRF also reports 27% of holiday shoppers planned to give experiences in 2026.
How an extended shopping season changes ecommerce strategy
Retailers have to prepare for successive sales, seasonal launches, price changes and customer questions over several months.
McKinsey recommends connecting information across business systems. Linking inventory, orders, customer data and marketing helps teams adjust offers to availability rather than advertise products they cannot deliver. Pricing rules should allow adjustments as conditions change while protecting margins and reflecting available stock.
The longer schedule requires enough staff, warehouse space and website capacity to handle demand.
The omnichannel holiday shopper
Omnichannel retail connects online and physical shopping, allowing customers to research online and purchase in-store, or inspect an item before ordering online.
Buy online, pick up in store, curbside collection and ship-from-store require accurate inventory and coordinated fulfillment. Pickup availability should reflect local stock, while consistent offers and clear delivery choices make switching between a website and a store easier as deadlines approach.
The inventory challenge: planning for a longer season
To avoid running short of popular gifts in December, retailers should combine purchase history, current demand and supplier reliability in their forecasts. Before replenishing stock, teams should assess whether each promotion generated extra demand or shifted purchases earlier.
McKinsey recommends accounting for demand and replenishment lead times. With shared stock information, merchandising, marketing and shipping teams can adjust offers when deliveries run late or unsold goods accumulate.
What happens when every month becomes a sale?
BCG warns that overwhelming shoppers with promotions can weaken loyalty and brand reputation. Retailers should consider whether repeated markdowns give customers reason to question the regular price or wait for another sale. If shoppers associate a store mainly with its next sale, helpful staff, interesting products and dependable service can give them other reasons to return.
“Price will matter, but marketers should not focus on prices alone,” Gartner senior principal analyst Emily Weiss said in an October 2026 published Q&A.
How retailers can prepare for the future of holiday shopping
Retailers can prepare with these steps:
Use past purchases to identify when customers shop and which offers interest them.
Coordinate campaigns beyond Thanksgiving with inventory, staffing and website capacity.
Keep stock information accurate and fulfillment flexible.
Tailor offers to customers’ interests without filling their inboxes.
Evaluate profitability and additional sales throughout the season, including whether early promotions merely shift later purchases forward.
The future of the holiday shopping season
McKinsey describes retailers experimenting with AI to tailor promotional offers. Similar tools could support demand forecasts and inventory planning, provided retailers check results against reliable data.
As marketplace sales become familiar fixtures, shoppers may expect October deals, while retailers could make greater use of individual offers instead of storewide discounts. The evidence does not show an earlier start every year: NRF’s share planning to browse or buy before November was 45% in its 2024 survey, versus 43% in 2026. Thanksgiving weekend still matters.
The holiday shopping season isn't just a season anymore
The longer holiday season reflects both household budgets and retailers’ competition for them. An early discount may bring someone through the door, but having the right product at a fair price and delivering it as promised gives that customer a reason to return.
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